Tuesday, January 25, 2011

The life you wouldn't want...

8.9 mn shelterless households in India by 2012.

Picture above of squatters outside Mumbai local train station. (Source - Author)

In 2007, the housing shortage was estimated to be 24.7 mn housing units. Of this, new housing units requirement was estimated to be 7.5 mn. About 15 mn housing units were estimated to require upgradation or expansion. Over 2 mn houses were estimated to be in a 'bad' condition, or over 80 years old, requiring replacement. By 2012, shelterless households are estimated to increase to 8.9 mn and the housing shortage to rise to 26.5 mn units.

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Cost of climate change


A changed climate, with intense rainfall, severe droughts, extreme temperatures will require adaptation measures by countries that will entail significant costs. The World Bank initial study estimates the costs for developing countries "between 2010 and 2050 of adapting to an approximately 2 deg C warmer world by 2050 is in the range of $70 billion to $100 billion a year".
While the exercise is intense, inclusive of all scenario analysis, required measures and the related costs, I have made a feeble attempt at estimating the amount the Indian Govt. spends currently, on adapting to climate change. This comes to about USD 3 bn a year. Following figures (in Rs crs) of all activities:








Sunday, December 12, 2010

Some numbers and charts, analysis and review follows.

India is the third largest emitter of CO2 or equivalent gases. China the larges and USA second. The gap is incredibly large, China emissions amounted to over 6500 mil metric tonnes. USA 5800 MMT and India 1600 MMT in 2007!

India has one of the lowest per cap emission rates. More significantly, an improving energy efficiency, with the output produced per 1000 metric tonne of CO2 emission falling.

Saturday, November 20, 2010

Funding Political Campaigns

Various reasons that suggest against the state funding of political campaigns. For one, political campaigns have become excessively costly. A less compelling, why should the taxpayer take the burden of funding campaign of those its ideologies do no jibe with? But voters do need to be aware of each one’s manifesto to be able to decide.
Corporate funding could, idealistically, could reduce the under-table black transactions. It could be Pro-Reforms, given that corporates would now have to earn funding, based on work done in past, policies and promises to deliver. However, corporate funding continues on an anonymous basis and a ‘quid pro quo’ basis. It lists towards support of more networked individuals, and are a natural bane to independent or new candidates.
Numerous examples right at home, right from Enron-Dabhol Power project, to the Reddy Brothers in Karnataka, the Maytas Infra group and the allotment of 2G Spectrum licences!
The various touted policy options include placement of spending limits. These of course would be unfair to the new candidates. In early 2010, it was promulgated by the US Supreme Court: “corporate funding of independent political broadcasts in candidate elections cannot be limited pursuant to the right of these entities to free speech’.
The more effective less easy solution seems to be increasing disclosures.
A thought crossed my mind, that some of the campaign expenses should be made evenly, equally free for all candidates. Possibility in terms of print material, airtime, fuel costs, and paid for by the respective corporations. Presumably this will lower the demand for additional funds. Of course, the brunt will be borne by the limited Media and Fuel industries.
The corporate funding to political parties, from a purely practical point of view, cannot be eliminated, not now when we are on our way to fiscal consolidation, and yet far from FRBM targets.

Thursday, October 21, 2010

550 Years!

The annual average rate of gross deforestation is a little under 3.5 bn metric tonnes (2005-2009). India is responsible for ~10% of this. USA and China for another 11% and 9% respectively.

Following table: Percent share of countries (top 50%) in gross 3.3 bln mtrc tn deforestation in 2009:

The forest cover has depleted at a much higher rate of over 85,000 Sq Km between 1990-2000. This has moderated to close to 70,000-75,000 Sq Km in recent years. Nevertheless the rate is not innocuous. It is not just deforestation that contributes to green house effect and climate change, the effect is compounded also by the derived wood fuel that is burnt.



At this celerity, the forest land will completely disappear in ~550 years!!

Tuesday, October 12, 2010

the market solution to slum rehabilitation

I was recently introduced to the concept of market based solutions for slum rehabilitation.
At the fore: slums are not a result of market failure, rather a result of markets. The solution therefore, lies embedded in the working of markets.
The solution is provision of low cost housing to the slum inhabitants, who were too poor to afford extant housing. A prerequisite: inexpensive land. The current demand supply mismatch in the real estate market seems large. Authors suggested accelerated clearance of disputed land, conversion of unused public lands and conversion of agricultural lands at city periphery for urban use.
Following calculations based on cheapest available land around Bombay (Thane district?) at Rs 2,500 /sq ft show ~1,000 acres of residential land needs to be made available (further, land for infrastructure will also need to be made available) to meet demand. There may still be some people who may need titling benefits or subsidies.
Releasing this kind of land should not take much, it is only about 1% of Mumbai’s total land.













  • Households with annual income less than Rs 90,000 per annum will be eligible for subsidies.
  • Given the magnitude of 'inexpensive' land required, converting agricultural land and developing satellite towns may actually be the best available option.
  • Substantial investments would have to be made for provision of infrastructure, particularly transport.
Paper: "Working with the Market: a New Approach to Reducing Urban Slums in India"

the scintillating urban and the static rural



Higher urban wages attract rural poor, leading to migration, unemployment, emergence of squatter settlements etc.


Higher wages or the ‘expected higher wages’ in the urban sector drive the immigrants.

Of course migration cannot be stanched. Two pronged policies:
  • Cities should expand to keep pace with immigrant population. Policies to integrate informal into mainstream economy, Govt provision of adequate physical infrastructure.
  • Productivity in rural areas can be enhanced (for example through imposition of minimum wages).

In India, rural labour market seems to have settled at a low productivity equilibrium encouraging migration.

Productivity in Agriculture sector has not progressed over past few years: